[KDI-CIGI] Post-2015 Development Agenda:
Goals, Targets and Indicators
Nicole Bates-Eamer, Barry Carin, Min Ha Lee and Wonhyuk Lim
with Mukesh Kapila
The world in 2010s significantly differs from late 1990s, against which the world in 2015 was projected and, thus, current Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) was designed; with 80% of the world’s poor living in stable, low-income countries in 1990, the poverty reduction and human development for “the bottom billion” were placed at the heart of current MDGs on the basis of the traditional North-South aid model. Today, on the contrary, both advanced and developing economies, even those who achieved significant economic growth, are confronted with the consequent phenomena of increasing inequality. The statistical findings that only 10% and 24% of today’s poor lives in stable, low-income countries and fragile, low-income countries, respectively, while 66% resides in middle-income countries (Gertz and Chandy, 2011), demonstrates the widening economic gap within and among countries. Furthermore, in the absence of sufficient social safety net, this economic gap has been transmitted into social inequality where access to various opportunities for the better lives is unevenly distributed in many societies. All in all, there is an emerging consensus that, to be relevant, the post-2015 development agenda needs to go well beyond a poverty focus and lead the way towards self-sustaining growth and development.
On the other hand, the world is also experiencing a very rapid transition into ageing societies. By 2050, one in three persons living in developed countries, and one in five in what currently constitute developing countries, will be over 60 years of age. This trend, having induced over one billion international and national migration, is calling for appropriate social welfare programs. Last but not least, the environment is suffering with the world: the climate has changed and, consequently, the incidence of natural disasters has increased five-fold since the 1970s, while the vulnerability of societies to such events increased following the global trend of urbanization.
Furthermore, the world today has yet been freed from the traditional issues. There still are regions suffering from under-nutrition, while the obesity has become one of health hazards in many countries. The development of ample medical cure for health hazards, ranging from traditional diseases like HIVs and AIDS to new causes of death such as cancer and mental illnesses, still has a long way to go. Additionally, the Geneva Declaration Secretariat (2011) reported that at least one fifth of humanity lives in countries experiencing significant violence in form of social inequality, political and military conflicts, injustice, absence of rule of law, insecurity and societal fragility.
In response to these changes, the UN System Task Team on the Post-2015 UN Development Agenda (hereafter UNTT), established by the Secretary-General to coordinate system-wide preparations for the agenda, identified following four core dimensions as the global priorities in addressing three fundamental principles of human rights, equality and sustainability (Full text available at http://www.undp.org/content/undp/en/home/librarypage/poverty-reduction/realizing-the-future-we-want/ ).
- Inclusive Social Development to set equitable social circumstances that allow individuals to fully participate in their communities through empowerment. Key areas to be dealt with include universal access to quality health and education services; safe water; sanitation and hygiene; sufficient nutritious food; and modern energy services.
- Environmental Sustainability represents the key challenge for the world beyond 2015. In alignment with the Rio+20 outcomes, climate change; ocean acidification; sustainable management of natural resources including biodiversity; education and R&D on energy-efficient technologies and low-carbon energy sources; disaster management and resilience; sustainable urbanization should be properly addressed.
- Inclusive Economic Development refers to a stable and equitable economic growth on the basis of sustainable patterns of production and consumption, beyond pro-poor focus. Growth strategies for the future should cover better governance of the multilateral trade and financial sectors; adequate productive employment and decent work, poverty and income inequality reduction; sufficient investments on physical infrastructure; and global partnership to strengthen the capabilities of developing countries.
- Peace and Security attend to resolve multiple and hidden forms of violence and injustice in all countries, not being bound to the apparent armed conflict or so-called ‘fragile states.’ The prevention and reduction of all forms of violence and abuse should include protection against specific manifestations (e.g. human-trafficking, torture, organized crimes, sexual abuse, labour exploitation) and effective governance that supports rights-based, just and rule of law.
In attempt to facilitate the consultation process set out by the UN at all levels and, ultimately, to assist the process of selecting the post-2015 successors to the MDGs, the Korea Development Institute (KDI) and the Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI) have led a consortium with a number of partners: the International Federation of Red Cross (IFRC), the International Poverty Reduction Center in China (IPRCC), the Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV), the Tata Institute for Social Science, the University of Manchester and the University of Pretoria. With combined expertise, the consortium has published a Special Report on post-2015 development agenda: goals, targets and indicators, which discuss the possible menu for potential indicators for eleven candidate “Bellagio Goals” (Full text on Bellagio is available at http://www.cigionline.org/publications/2011/8/toward-post-2015-development-paradigm).
- Inclusive growth for dignified livelihoods and adequate standards of living
- Sufficient food and water for active living
- Appropriate education and skills for productive participation in society
- Good health for the best possible physical and mental well-being
- Security for ensuring freedom from violence
- Gender equality for enabling males and females to participate and benefit equally in society
- Resilient communities and nations for reduced disaster risk from natural and technological hazards
- Infrastructure for access to essential information, services, and opportunities
- Empowerment of people for realizing their civil and political rights
- Sustainable management of the biosphere for enabling people and planet to thrive together
- Global Governance and Equitable Rules for Realizing Human Potential
This Special Report, on the basis of the discussions at a meeting at Bellagio, Italy in 2011, and an expert meeting (Paris, OECD) followed by five regional consultations (Beijing, Seoul, Pretoria, Mumbai and Rio de Janeiro) in 2012, suggests that future goals must reach beyond traditional development thinking to become sustainable one-world goals applicable to both poor and rich countries alike. Goals, targets and indicators should follow from a holistic notion of development (“development as freedom”), based on a two-track structure of global- and country-level targets and indicators under universally agreed goals.
Potential Indicators and Targets for Candidate Goals
This Report is also available at CIGI homepage, co-leader of the project: